* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 07/09/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 36 48 57 64 66 68 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 24 25 27 30 38 50 59 66 69 70 44 32 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 24 26 27 31 36 41 44 46 48 35 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 10 10 16 15 19 17 25 21 36 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 1 2 -6 1 -1 4 3 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 23 37 359 1 18 360 22 359 357 336 323 314 302 SST (C) 28.9 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 31.1 31.2 31.5 31.3 30.9 30.2 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 164 170 171 170 170 169 169 169 169 169 169 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 137 144 151 152 152 162 162 169 164 154 142 136 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 8 10 8 10 7 10 7 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 60 60 59 63 58 56 52 52 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 7 9 12 17 19 21 20 22 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -5 -24 -15 5 -2 19 20 22 0 10 -47 -29 200 MB DIV 8 9 0 4 50 25 35 24 20 0 26 13 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 -6 0 -8 0 -2 5 7 LAND (KM) -13 15 59 135 187 111 112 124 115 73 10 -84 -197 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 33 41 42 42 39 36 38 34 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 23. 29. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 8. 11. 13. 13. 14. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 16. 28. 37. 44. 46. 48. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.0 84.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 07/09/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 39.4% 23.8% 7.0% 4.0% 17.6% 32.6% 50.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.4% 13.2% 7.9% 2.3% 1.3% 5.9% 10.9% 17.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 07/09/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 07/09/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 25 27 30 38 50 59 66 69 70 44 32 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 33 45 54 61 64 65 39 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 29 41 50 57 60 61 35 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT