* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 07/08/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 16 17 19 21 24 29 35 41 42 43 41 43 V (KT) LAND 15 20 23 25 25 30 36 42 48 48 49 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 15 20 23 25 26 29 30 32 33 34 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 17 13 15 15 22 24 27 23 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 -1 -1 1 3 -2 1 -3 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 317 350 329 2 21 2 10 13 29 22 19 3 358 SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.5 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 160 155 154 159 170 168 168 168 170 169 170 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 129 130 135 146 144 144 144 154 157 161 158 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 8 8 10 8 9 8 10 9 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 60 62 59 62 62 67 61 62 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 9 12 12 14 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 55 23 4 11 18 -9 0 -8 1 -22 10 -22 -1 200 MB DIV 13 9 -14 -7 8 -7 32 22 15 17 5 1 13 700-850 TADV 3 5 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 -2 -2 -8 0 -7 LAND (KM) -235 -216 -171 -94 -33 139 193 265 174 178 177 173 70 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 4 4 35 32 39 55 42 36 37 35 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 17. 24. 30. 34. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 3. -2. -7. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 4. 5. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 26. 27. 28. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 32.6 83.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 07/08/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 17.4% 10.9% 4.2% 1.3% 7.8% 6.5% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 5.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.4% 2.6% 2.2% 7.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 07/08/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 07/08/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 15 20 23 25 25 30 36 42 48 48 49 48 50 18HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT