* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 10/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 39 42 42 40 32 26 20 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 39 42 42 40 32 26 20 22 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 37 35 33 31 27 29 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 25 28 31 37 36 37 36 24 31 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -3 -5 -5 -7 -4 -5 1 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 275 275 285 286 295 299 313 327 13 302 278 302 316 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 24.4 24.8 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.0 24.1 24.1 22.7 23.1 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 103 105 101 105 101 101 100 97 98 99 89 92 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 91 90 94 91 90 88 83 84 86 78 79 82 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.2 -56.7 -56.7 -56.8 -56.4 -56.0 -55.0 -54.7 -55.6 -57.6 -58.4 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 49 46 47 49 49 48 45 39 34 37 36 30 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 11 10 9 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 80 80 68 62 77 70 57 4 -9 -81 -134 -140 200 MB DIV -3 7 0 4 -1 -18 -14 -17 3 -7 -14 -25 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -5 -13 -2 0 7 20 12 23 42 LAND (KM) 1156 1103 983 847 716 497 343 230 206 200 36 -58 -117 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.0 30.8 30.7 30.8 31.4 32.1 33.0 33.9 35.3 36.4 37.4 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 24.2 22.9 21.3 19.6 16.2 13.5 11.8 10.6 8.8 6.5 5.6 5.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 8 13 14 15 14 10 7 8 11 8 8 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -6. -14. -19. -26. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 12. 12. 10. 2. -4. -10. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.2 24.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 10/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 10/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 39 42 42 40 32 26 20 22 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 36 39 39 37 29 23 17 19 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 33 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT