* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 10/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 41 44 46 46 39 30 25 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 41 44 46 46 39 30 24 25 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 41 40 37 31 31 30 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 21 25 29 31 31 31 41 34 44 47 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -3 -4 -7 -4 -5 -5 0 -10 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 259 272 275 279 282 293 307 322 348 344 293 283 302 SST (C) 25.1 25.1 25.0 24.5 24.9 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.1 24.0 23.8 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 102 103 104 102 106 100 100 100 98 99 99 106 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 86 90 91 95 90 88 86 84 87 88 89 82 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.3 -57.1 -56.5 -56.6 -56.6 -56.3 -55.3 -54.3 -54.6 -56.0 -57.3 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 5 2 4 2 700-500 MB RH 49 49 47 48 49 49 47 44 38 37 39 35 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 97 79 82 65 72 72 66 41 2 -12 -77 -130 200 MB DIV 7 0 10 -3 8 -9 -8 -38 -12 19 -6 -36 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 -13 -9 -2 16 15 29 17 11 LAND (KM) 1171 1166 1097 980 830 569 426 273 211 194 -56 120 211 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.4 31.2 30.9 30.8 31.2 31.9 32.8 33.6 35.0 37.3 38.6 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 24.7 24.7 24.0 22.8 21.0 17.5 14.4 12.5 10.9 9.1 6.2 2.9 1.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 8 13 15 15 12 8 8 13 17 10 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 848 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -11. -18. -26. -33. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -18. -19. -20. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 16. 9. 0. -5. -11. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 24.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 10/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.24 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 7.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 10/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 39 41 44 46 46 39 30 24 25 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 38 41 43 43 36 27 21 22 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 36 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 27 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT