* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 10/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 38 41 46 48 50 47 42 36 32 31 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 38 41 46 48 50 47 42 32 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 31 33 36 40 42 42 41 33 33 30 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 17 19 20 27 33 33 32 36 39 21 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -5 -5 -3 -7 -3 -7 -3 -3 1 8 8 SHEAR DIR 258 255 275 262 273 291 301 314 331 333 317 265 223 SST (C) 25.1 25.0 25.0 25.1 24.7 24.8 24.1 24.6 24.0 23.1 17.6 17.7 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 103 106 105 106 100 102 98 95 79 82 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 85 88 93 94 96 90 89 85 85 75 78 72 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.7 -57.3 -57.0 -56.5 -56.7 -56.5 -56.2 -54.8 -54.0 -54.3 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 45 47 50 47 45 41 44 54 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 111 101 108 91 84 64 72 66 48 12 148 32 0 200 MB DIV -13 0 1 4 -1 0 -2 -29 -6 21 40 63 61 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 3 -3 -5 2 18 22 88 60 34 LAND (KM) 1207 1249 1226 1142 984 681 468 317 289 148 -76 126 -12 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.7 31.4 30.9 30.5 30.6 31.4 32.6 34.0 36.1 40.3 47.0 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 25.0 25.5 25.4 24.7 23.1 19.3 15.7 13.1 11.6 10.0 7.9 5.5 3.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 5 11 15 17 15 10 10 16 29 41 47 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -2. -8. -15. -22. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 16. 18. 20. 17. 12. 6. 2. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.7 25.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 10/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 10/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 38 41 46 48 50 47 42 32 32 29 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 44 46 48 45 40 30 30 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 38 40 42 39 34 24 24 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 30 32 29 24 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT