* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 10/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 52 55 56 54 49 79 70 58 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 52 55 56 54 49 79 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 41 46 50 52 53 65 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 23 22 18 17 24 27 27 31 26 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -8 -5 -5 0 -5 -3 -3 -4 1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 245 269 264 289 278 289 290 299 319 329 317 309 254 SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.4 24.8 23.8 24.5 24.1 23.4 15.1 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 98 96 98 101 105 98 103 100 98 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 83 80 83 88 93 88 91 89 90 73 76 200 MB T (C) -58.3 -58.0 -58.0 -57.8 -57.5 -56.7 -56.2 -55.6 -55.2 -54.3 -54.1 -55.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 52 49 48 45 47 44 42 49 56 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 6 32 28 20 850 MB ENV VOR 120 100 83 91 90 80 68 62 55 38 92 140 -57 200 MB DIV -21 -10 7 8 5 1 -23 -20 -7 9 31 31 28 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 2 2 3 -4 -4 4 21 8 102 13 LAND (KM) 1117 1101 1142 1174 1164 992 747 475 331 225 46 -183 58 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 32.0 32.4 32.7 32.5 31.5 30.9 30.9 31.9 33.7 36.7 42.0 49.2 LONG(DEG W) 23.7 23.5 23.7 23.9 23.9 22.5 19.9 16.5 13.4 11.0 8.7 6.2 3.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 4 1 4 10 13 14 14 14 23 33 39 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -11. -17. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -12. 21. 15. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 25. 26. 24. 19. 49. 40. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.0 23.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 10/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 10/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 52 55 56 54 49 79 37 31 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 47 50 51 49 44 74 32 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 40 43 44 42 37 67 25 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 32 33 31 26 56 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT