* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 42 50 60 68 74 78 81 82 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 42 50 60 68 74 78 81 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 45 54 64 72 79 82 82 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 10 9 6 5 4 6 6 6 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 0 -3 0 0 6 6 9 4 6 SHEAR DIR 84 92 99 96 99 92 71 334 354 320 313 284 290 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 126 125 128 128 129 132 137 140 148 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 117 117 117 121 123 126 130 135 138 150 156 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 58 61 63 61 62 58 55 50 49 51 50 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 17 19 18 18 17 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 96 95 87 86 90 90 100 89 78 71 44 18 21 200 MB DIV 18 42 51 58 52 53 0 26 7 27 10 5 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -1 -1 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 1879 1915 1951 1992 1954 1842 1697 1518 1369 1203 1088 967 781 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 7 10 11 12 12 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 8 9 12 14 5 6 13 32 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 20. 30. 38. 44. 48. 51. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 34.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 18.1% 15.0% 9.4% 7.3% 11.4% 12.6% 23.3% Logistic: 2.1% 7.7% 3.1% 0.5% 0.2% 2.4% 2.8% 2.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 6.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 3.2% 1.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.7% 6.5% 3.3% 2.5% 5.2% 6.2% 9.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 39 42 50 60 68 74 78 81 82 84 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 38 46 56 64 70 74 77 78 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 41 51 59 65 69 72 73 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 41 49 55 59 62 63 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT