* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 57 67 75 80 83 84 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 57 67 75 80 83 84 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 53 63 72 75 74 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 10 9 9 8 3 8 7 14 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 -2 0 2 8 5 8 3 SHEAR DIR 85 80 84 95 91 93 70 105 334 280 300 279 286 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 126 126 126 127 126 129 133 138 143 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 118 116 116 117 118 120 121 126 129 135 141 147 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 60 59 58 54 50 49 51 52 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 19 19 19 19 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 101 102 100 90 92 101 99 94 82 77 72 53 29 200 MB DIV 21 32 38 49 39 46 12 13 6 15 10 7 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 -2 1 2 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 1921 1963 1978 1949 1921 1848 1737 1601 1462 1315 1169 1054 974 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 4 6 8 10 11 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 9 10 11 15 5 6 9 19 27 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 423 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 22. 25. 28. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 32. 42. 50. 55. 58. 59. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 35.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 16.6% 13.8% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 23.3% 15.0% 5.1% 2.9% 8.2% 6.7% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 3.5% 6.1% Consensus: 3.5% 13.9% 9.8% 4.5% 1.0% 2.9% 7.0% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922018 INVEST 09/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 45 57 67 75 80 83 84 83 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 42 54 64 72 77 80 81 80 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 36 48 58 66 71 74 75 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 38 48 56 61 64 65 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT