* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 58 68 75 80 81 84 90 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 48 58 68 75 80 81 84 90 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 30 32 38 46 53 61 69 73 74 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 12 11 12 10 5 2 7 14 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 6 11 9 13 9 SHEAR DIR 80 87 75 89 106 102 114 98 286 290 297 326 323 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 126 125 125 125 125 125 126 131 136 144 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 122 117 115 115 116 117 118 123 130 137 145 161 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 58 56 58 60 63 61 58 54 53 52 54 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 16 18 20 20 20 21 20 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 107 103 105 103 95 100 105 99 86 74 77 66 61 200 MB DIV 19 41 41 50 57 51 52 32 13 -1 23 19 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 3 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1835 1931 1984 1969 1951 1916 1843 1741 1607 1430 1229 1035 817 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.1 14.6 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.4 35.9 36.2 36.4 37.0 38.0 39.5 41.6 44.6 47.9 51.2 54.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 4 2 2 4 6 8 12 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 9 11 11 11 12 11 4 14 17 18 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 388 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 33. 43. 50. 55. 56. 59. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 34.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.58 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 16.0% 13.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 20.1% 11.1% 4.1% 2.4% 9.3% 10.1% 18.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 1.3% 6.7% Consensus: 3.6% 13.2% 8.5% 4.1% 0.8% 3.3% 7.3% 8.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 39 48 58 68 75 80 81 84 90 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 35 44 54 64 71 76 77 80 86 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 38 48 58 65 70 71 74 80 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 39 49 56 61 62 65 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT