* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 37 47 57 67 76 80 82 86 88 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 37 47 57 67 76 80 82 86 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 38 45 52 61 69 75 78 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 11 11 9 9 2 2 4 5 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 8 15 13 10 SHEAR DIR 70 80 97 89 92 100 137 113 110 329 305 320 304 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 127 126 124 122 123 123 129 132 138 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 123 120 118 116 116 114 117 118 125 128 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 61 63 62 58 53 50 50 52 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 17 19 20 20 20 18 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 107 104 100 103 104 95 109 95 91 88 84 73 58 200 MB DIV 9 17 32 38 46 45 34 22 12 -4 2 -3 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1719 1815 1878 1920 1951 1982 1928 1818 1675 1495 1325 1170 1077 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.4 34.3 34.9 35.3 35.6 36.4 37.4 39.0 41.0 43.4 45.8 48.3 50.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 4 4 5 6 9 10 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 4 10 13 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 22. 32. 42. 51. 55. 57. 61. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 33.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.9% 13.2% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 10.9% 5.0% 1.7% 1.1% 6.1% 13.9% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.6% 2.0% Consensus: 2.4% 10.4% 6.3% 3.5% 0.4% 2.1% 8.8% 8.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 37 47 57 67 76 80 82 86 88 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 34 44 54 64 73 77 79 83 85 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 37 47 57 66 70 72 76 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 28 38 48 57 61 63 67 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT