* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 70 80 87 90 92 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 70 80 87 90 92 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 56 65 74 81 84 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 9 9 7 4 2 2 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 1 11 18 11 15 SHEAR DIR 55 79 107 109 93 114 95 104 60 6 311 303 346 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 127 127 126 125 125 125 125 126 129 132 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 121 120 117 116 115 115 118 121 127 131 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 58 58 61 60 59 58 58 58 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 16 18 21 21 22 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 107 112 108 104 107 98 101 103 92 76 73 68 47 200 MB DIV -4 5 1 23 48 77 72 48 15 18 18 25 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 9 4 LAND (KM) 1617 1743 1840 1937 2002 1901 1850 1797 1719 1618 1490 1340 1221 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.7 34.6 35.5 36.1 37.1 37.6 38.3 39.4 41.0 43.6 46.5 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 7 5 4 2 4 7 10 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 4 7 12 13 14 13 4 11 13 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 45. 55. 62. 65. 67. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 32.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 14.9% 12.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.2% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 3.9% 6.2% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% Consensus: 2.0% 8.2% 5.8% 3.4% 0.2% 1.4% 6.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 70 80 87 90 92 93 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 44 55 67 77 84 87 89 90 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 49 61 71 78 81 83 84 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 40 52 62 69 72 74 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT