* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 65 73 81 88 92 92 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 65 73 81 88 92 92 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 40 48 57 66 73 80 85 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 9 8 5 5 3 1 7 8 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 3 11 7 SHEAR DIR 74 68 50 70 95 155 154 121 120 15 3 360 299 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 129 126 126 123 122 122 123 125 129 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 127 124 120 120 116 114 114 116 117 122 125 128 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 63 63 60 57 54 53 53 56 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 15 18 18 19 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 118 108 100 103 100 106 108 110 107 95 94 75 63 200 MB DIV 18 -4 8 6 13 50 59 61 53 21 21 8 15 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 8 LAND (KM) 1347 1436 1529 1624 1719 1901 2015 1890 1733 1602 1467 1391 1319 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.2 15.2 14.7 14.3 13.9 14.2 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 29.9 30.8 31.7 32.6 33.5 35.2 36.7 38.2 39.7 41.0 42.4 43.9 45.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 6 3 2 1 3 8 11 6 7 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 27. 40. 48. 56. 63. 67. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 29.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.63 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.7% 13.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 11.5% 5.7% 2.2% 1.1% 7.6% 15.3% 10.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 14.4% 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.3% 2.6% 0.7% Consensus: 3.2% 14.2% 7.5% 3.9% 0.5% 3.3% 9.6% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 43 52 65 73 81 88 92 92 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 48 61 69 77 84 88 88 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 42 55 63 71 78 82 82 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 33 46 54 62 69 73 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT