* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 51 58 67 74 82 88 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 51 58 67 74 82 88 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 19 21 25 30 34 38 43 51 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 6 7 8 6 5 5 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -4 0 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 88 82 76 69 79 137 180 214 231 326 46 12 21 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 128 126 123 120 119 120 122 126 131 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 126 122 119 115 112 112 113 116 120 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 64 66 63 62 57 52 50 49 54 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 17 17 19 18 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 124 113 107 103 107 105 122 117 128 110 103 108 87 200 MB DIV 17 11 5 20 17 33 44 76 64 33 14 27 46 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 1239 1315 1383 1442 1526 1675 1825 2008 1973 1758 1553 1379 1310 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.6 15.2 15.8 16.2 16.2 15.5 14.5 13.6 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 28.8 29.6 30.3 30.9 31.7 33.1 34.5 36.2 38.1 40.2 41.9 43.3 44.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 7 4 1 0 0 1 6 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 31. 38. 47. 54. 62. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.8 28.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 13.5% 6.7% 2.9% 2.3% 8.5% 11.9% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% Consensus: 1.0% 5.1% 2.3% 1.0% 0.8% 2.9% 4.2% 3.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 51 58 67 74 82 88 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 24 30 37 50 57 66 73 81 87 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 34 47 54 63 70 78 84 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT