* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 36 44 53 63 72 79 86 93 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 36 44 53 63 72 79 86 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 33 40 50 60 66 71 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 15 12 8 4 5 7 6 6 4 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 1 1 -3 -4 -1 -4 -5 0 4 5 SHEAR DIR 96 94 91 99 101 92 88 136 174 166 344 22 1 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 135 133 129 127 126 125 125 126 126 129 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 135 130 128 123 120 118 116 116 117 119 124 130 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 65 62 65 61 62 63 61 61 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 10 11 11 11 14 15 18 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 135 126 124 112 111 123 111 109 96 94 99 82 85 200 MB DIV 17 7 21 7 7 10 27 49 65 76 23 16 23 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 1102 1182 1270 1352 1434 1604 1743 1851 1948 1949 1816 1677 1485 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.3 29.2 30.0 30.8 32.4 33.7 34.7 35.6 36.7 38.0 39.3 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 5 6 6 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 8 10 11 9 4 3 5 7 12 15 18 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 19. 28. 38. 47. 54. 61. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.4 27.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 14.6% 11.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 11.3% 4.9% 2.6% 2.6% 9.7% 17.9% 23.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 9.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 6.6% Consensus: 2.7% 11.6% 5.8% 3.3% 0.9% 3.5% 9.3% 9.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 36 44 53 63 72 79 86 93 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 34 42 51 61 70 77 84 91 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 37 46 56 65 72 79 86 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 30 39 49 58 65 72 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT