* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/05/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 30 37 44 52 59 64 72 76 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 30 37 44 52 59 64 72 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 32 38 43 45 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 23 23 19 10 5 5 12 17 18 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 0 1 0 0 -4 -3 -4 -4 2 10 SHEAR DIR 87 86 86 86 87 95 104 213 234 246 265 269 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 141 140 136 129 123 121 120 118 119 123 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 142 138 135 130 123 116 113 113 113 114 119 127 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 69 69 69 69 67 69 61 56 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 14 16 18 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 129 130 125 124 112 109 98 101 112 104 104 95 102 200 MB DIV 10 11 19 31 24 15 27 42 61 65 48 36 29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 1072 1136 1166 1202 1231 1346 1493 1643 1816 2066 1954 1721 1441 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.2 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.1 16.6 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.4 27.9 28.4 28.8 30.0 31.4 32.8 34.4 36.7 39.3 42.1 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 8 8 7 7 10 12 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 7 9 8 7 2 1 0 0 3 1 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 27. 34. 39. 47. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 26.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/05/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.76 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.1% 10.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.7% 6.6% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 1.6% 6.2% 3.8% 2.5% 0.1% 1.0% 4.6% 4.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/05/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 30 37 44 52 59 64 72 76 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 29 36 43 51 58 63 71 75 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 26 33 40 48 55 60 68 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 26 33 41 48 53 61 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT