* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/05/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 45 51 58 64 73 78 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 45 51 58 64 73 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 43 46 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 25 21 20 18 10 3 4 11 14 11 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 3 4 3 0 -2 -6 -5 -4 1 6 SHEAR DIR 85 76 86 85 86 112 110 211 223 259 254 299 12 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 143 141 139 132 126 122 120 119 120 122 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 145 140 137 134 125 119 115 112 112 113 116 124 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 69 70 66 70 69 69 66 63 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 14 15 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 131 130 129 122 124 105 100 96 111 107 106 100 101 200 MB DIV 5 -1 -1 0 33 23 14 32 35 60 51 46 32 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1016 1112 1153 1184 1210 1295 1440 1611 1772 1955 1997 1779 1562 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.7 14.0 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.1 15.3 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 26.0 27.0 27.6 28.1 28.5 29.5 30.9 32.5 34.0 35.7 37.7 39.7 41.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 5 8 9 8 3 1 0 0 1 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 366 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. -1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 33. 39. 48. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 26.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/05/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.79 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 14.8% 11.5% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 5.1% 2.5% 1.4% 1.1% 3.7% 5.7% 16.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.1% Consensus: 2.1% 7.2% 4.7% 3.1% 0.4% 1.3% 4.4% 6.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/05/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 31 38 45 51 58 64 73 78 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 30 37 44 50 57 63 72 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 34 41 47 54 60 69 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 27 34 40 47 53 62 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT