* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/04/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 40 46 51 56 61 63 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 40 46 51 56 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 36 39 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 25 25 21 13 8 5 8 15 19 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 1 3 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 87 79 84 87 86 111 141 179 226 263 271 275 294 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 146 144 133 125 122 118 118 116 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 148 145 144 141 128 118 115 111 110 109 109 112 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 75 74 76 75 73 75 69 64 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 132 131 125 127 127 95 90 82 90 97 98 86 76 200 MB DIV 14 12 2 16 38 30 17 22 47 48 51 28 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 1 -3 0 -1 -1 2 5 7 LAND (KM) 864 942 962 965 949 1005 1128 1300 1475 1672 1902 2126 1990 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.7 11.4 12.3 14.0 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.5 17.7 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.8 28.0 29.6 31.2 33.0 35.1 37.2 39.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 6 8 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 6 6 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 350 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 24.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/04/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.88 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.82 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.1% 11.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.3% 4.3% 2.4% 2.2% 4.3% 6.6% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 7.1% Consensus: 2.3% 8.4% 5.4% 3.5% 0.8% 1.4% 2.3% 8.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/04/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 40 46 51 56 61 63 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 28 33 39 45 50 55 60 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 30 36 42 47 52 57 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 24 30 36 41 46 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT