* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/04/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 29 33 38 45 49 56 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 29 33 38 45 49 56 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 26 29 33 35 38 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 30 29 25 23 13 8 7 7 12 13 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 3 1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 79 87 87 89 96 120 157 206 227 242 260 258 277 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 146 142 131 124 119 118 117 116 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 146 146 144 141 127 119 113 111 110 109 109 114 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 700-500 MB RH 80 80 78 78 76 76 74 73 70 69 65 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 127 131 131 117 118 111 97 104 95 107 107 108 104 200 MB DIV 20 27 41 33 47 56 36 17 55 47 63 46 16 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 -2 0 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 705 781 799 819 812 874 1053 1260 1467 1674 1900 2127 1923 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.5 12.4 14.2 15.3 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 22.9 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.6 25.6 27.3 29.2 31.1 33.0 35.1 37.3 39.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 6 7 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 2 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 379 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 13. 20. 24. 31. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.1 22.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/04/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.89 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.82 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 13.9% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 2.3% 4.0% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 1.9% 6.6% 4.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 1.4% 3.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/04/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 25 29 33 38 45 49 56 61 64 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 24 28 32 37 44 48 55 60 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 26 30 35 42 46 53 58 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 24 29 36 40 47 52 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT