* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 37 42 47 50 53 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 27 32 37 42 47 50 53 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 36 37 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 26 21 16 6 5 11 12 13 17 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 0 4 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 83 86 87 80 83 99 246 265 277 267 248 242 227 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 145 140 131 123 119 118 118 119 121 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 146 145 143 138 127 118 113 112 110 113 115 119 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 78 80 75 73 68 69 64 66 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 116 124 129 126 113 114 88 103 108 103 113 105 101 200 MB DIV 34 23 49 41 42 56 31 19 17 18 51 61 42 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 3 5 3 0 0 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 525 611 662 695 715 840 1055 1318 1585 1809 2019 1926 1703 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.8 14.4 15.6 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.3 15.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 21.3 22.2 22.8 23.2 23.8 25.3 27.3 29.7 32.2 34.3 36.3 38.4 40.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 8 9 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 3 2 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 21.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.89 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.81 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 15.2% 11.7% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.0% 4.9% 2.8% 2.7% 5.4% 10.0% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 3.5% Consensus: 2.3% 9.3% 5.6% 3.5% 0.9% 1.9% 6.4% 6.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 27 32 37 42 47 50 53 58 60 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 31 36 41 46 49 52 57 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 28 33 38 43 46 49 54 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 32 37 40 43 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT