* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/04/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 28 32 36 40 44 46 47 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 28 32 36 40 44 46 47 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 33 33 32 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 25 20 16 11 6 13 18 18 25 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 0 0 1 6 -1 -3 3 -2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 63 76 85 82 75 107 195 244 270 268 246 255 246 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 144 139 131 123 119 117 118 118 118 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 144 142 137 127 119 114 112 111 110 111 113 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 80 78 79 73 69 67 64 65 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 113 118 119 116 105 99 97 106 100 109 101 106 200 MB DIV 59 37 32 53 45 51 29 29 15 64 55 58 40 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 0 0 3 -2 7 0 4 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 397 456 491 533 554 669 904 1179 1447 1692 1916 2066 1880 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 11.2 12.0 12.8 14.3 15.5 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.2 23.7 25.9 28.4 30.9 33.2 35.3 37.2 38.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 7 10 8 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 20.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/04/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.90 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.78 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 15.3% 11.8% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.3% 2.7% 1.1% 1.0% 3.1% 7.5% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% Consensus: 2.1% 8.7% 4.9% 2.9% 0.3% 1.1% 5.5% 3.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/04/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 28 32 36 40 44 46 47 49 49 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 27 31 35 39 43 45 46 48 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 27 31 35 39 41 42 44 44 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 29 33 35 36 38 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT