* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922018 09/03/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 33 37 41 44 47 48 50 53 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 33 37 41 44 47 48 50 53 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 33 37 40 41 41 40 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 16 11 7 8 11 13 14 13 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 3 2 6 0 0 -3 -1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 73 64 60 62 67 103 210 244 247 243 236 212 211 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.2 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.7 27.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 142 140 137 129 120 119 120 121 121 124 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 137 140 138 136 128 117 116 116 117 115 119 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 80 81 83 82 80 80 73 67 60 61 57 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 115 110 118 107 86 97 81 79 87 83 82 79 200 MB DIV 43 49 38 41 47 45 5 -8 -4 4 10 34 26 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 0 3 2 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 242 274 301 357 407 602 931 1287 1627 1933 1951 1733 1549 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.6 12.4 13.2 14.8 16.0 16.5 16.5 16.1 15.7 14.9 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.9 23.1 26.1 29.4 32.6 35.5 37.9 39.9 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 9 11 12 15 15 16 15 13 11 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 3 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 28. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.8 18.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922018 INVEST 09/03/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.90 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.73 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 17.7% 14.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 29.5% 14.1% 9.1% 11.0% 17.7% 20.5% 12.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 15.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 3.9% 2.8% 4.8% Consensus: 4.6% 21.0% 10.0% 6.2% 3.7% 7.2% 7.8% 5.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922018 INVEST 09/03/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 31 33 37 41 44 47 48 50 53 57 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 33 37 40 43 44 46 49 53 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 28 32 35 38 39 41 44 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 28 31 32 34 37 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT