* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 39 42 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 39 42 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 33 32 28 24 22 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 20 17 22 32 41 52 57 69 80 83 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -2 1 3 3 0 0 -3 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 220 229 259 266 243 243 227 254 267 279 266 249 227 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.2 17.2 13.8 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 129 125 126 124 118 112 109 110 79 75 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 118 115 112 113 110 105 96 93 98 75 73 67 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 -55.2 -55.9 -56.5 -57.7 -58.6 -60.0 -59.1 -55.0 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 67 64 62 60 53 50 49 55 60 60 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 9 11 11 10 6 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 7 5 23 32 10 -15 -74 -74 -58 6 133 292 200 MB DIV 52 29 -5 7 57 28 47 26 34 64 90 155 99 700-850 TADV 10 13 20 21 30 15 6 2 20 55 93 109 36 LAND (KM) 611 745 861 981 996 1078 1160 1141 1108 946 523 696 985 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.5 27.5 28.6 29.6 31.5 33.4 34.6 35.8 38.2 42.4 47.6 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 70.6 70.0 69.1 67.8 65.3 62.1 58.9 56.8 54.7 50.4 43.5 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 15 15 17 11 11 21 32 36 23 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 17 13 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 13 CX,CY: -4/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 863 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -7. -17. -29. -44. -60. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -5. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 12. 4. -8. -16. -24. -36. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.3 70.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.52 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 131.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.1% 11.3% 7.2% 6.4% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.7% 4.2% 2.5% 2.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 35 39 42 42 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 33 37 40 40 32 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 36 36 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 27 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT