* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 46 42 45 58 70 57 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 46 42 45 58 70 57 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 33 33 34 40 45 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 23 21 18 27 34 49 51 63 75 90 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 -1 0 2 5 0 0 -1 -4 -14 7 SHEAR DIR 259 224 228 253 262 237 226 234 258 283 288 265 251 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.5 25.3 23.9 18.0 11.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 133 130 128 125 118 113 109 109 103 82 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 120 118 117 113 106 100 93 93 93 78 72 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.9 -55.5 -55.7 -56.3 -56.8 -58.2 -59.5 -61.2 -58.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 64 62 53 45 43 45 50 55 67 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 12 11 8 14 30 44 42 37 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 4 8 20 21 0 -55 -93 -96 -90 -14 101 200 MB DIV 43 65 50 15 40 37 47 30 13 13 70 120 114 700-850 TADV 11 13 17 23 22 23 9 -15 -3 19 85 102 32 LAND (KM) 469 601 739 869 1029 1119 1161 1164 1218 1103 818 781 1129 LAT (DEG N) 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.5 28.8 31.2 33.5 35.1 35.7 36.8 39.9 45.0 51.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 70.6 70.1 69.2 68.0 65.0 61.6 57.4 54.0 52.1 49.2 43.3 37.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 17 18 19 17 11 13 27 38 38 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 20 30 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -13. -24. -37. -52. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. -1. 5. 25. 43. 40. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 16. 12. 15. 28. 40. 27. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.0 70.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.86 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.57 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.6% 12.1% 7.2% 6.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 3.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.4% 4.6% 2.5% 2.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 44 46 42 45 58 70 57 37 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 42 44 40 43 56 68 55 35 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 39 35 38 51 63 50 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 31 27 30 43 55 42 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT