* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 44 44 41 35 27 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 40 44 44 41 35 27 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 31 29 27 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 22 15 20 18 16 34 48 51 56 61 80 90 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 0 -2 -1 2 -1 1 4 4 0 -10 SHEAR DIR 264 255 231 230 245 224 234 237 259 272 289 284 261 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.0 22.0 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 145 139 135 133 127 117 112 109 107 93 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 134 128 124 122 114 104 97 93 93 86 75 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.5 -55.0 -55.4 -56.3 -56.5 -57.8 -59.0 -59.8 -60.2 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 72 68 64 58 49 49 45 47 55 58 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -20 -17 -8 10 31 -5 -56 -96 -88 -95 -85 15 200 MB DIV 28 33 66 57 41 55 35 55 44 22 28 89 126 700-850 TADV 9 11 14 14 14 13 8 4 0 12 34 72 140 LAND (KM) 311 418 564 714 881 1110 1215 1116 1136 1070 946 794 918 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.5 24.8 26.1 27.5 30.3 32.7 34.9 36.2 37.1 38.6 41.9 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.1 69.9 69.2 68.3 65.7 62.6 58.8 54.8 52.0 49.5 45.7 40.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 15 17 19 18 19 15 11 16 30 37 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 20 27 41 5 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. -13. -23. -35. -48. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 14. 11. 5. -3. -12. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.5 69.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.87 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.65 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 13.4% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.8% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 1.3% 2.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.7% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 3.7% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 35 40 44 44 41 35 27 18 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 43 43 40 34 26 17 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 39 39 36 30 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT