* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 25 27 35 42 44 42 45 54 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 25 27 35 42 44 42 45 54 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 21 23 23 23 24 28 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 27 20 13 19 22 30 35 35 39 36 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 1 0 6 3 6 2 6 7 2 SHEAR DIR 264 260 252 224 230 233 225 229 245 265 304 315 329 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.5 27.0 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.8 25.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 143 136 134 128 117 114 112 112 111 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 136 133 126 125 117 107 102 97 96 96 95 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -55.6 -55.8 -56.6 -57.0 -58.5 -59.5 -60.2 -60.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 6 4 2 2 1 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 71 72 71 67 63 49 39 35 34 36 44 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 11 14 13 12 15 24 35 39 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -8 -21 -22 -12 15 29 -12 -75 -102 -139 -145 -76 200 MB DIV 35 42 39 54 56 73 34 42 6 -16 -47 -29 54 700-850 TADV 2 9 12 12 14 17 26 -3 -9 -20 3 31 105 LAND (KM) 251 332 464 635 800 1081 1220 1139 1156 1244 1381 1456 1546 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.7 23.9 25.4 26.8 30.0 32.7 35.0 36.3 36.2 35.9 36.5 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.8 69.9 69.4 68.6 66.3 62.5 58.1 52.5 47.9 44.9 42.1 37.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 14 16 17 21 21 24 21 15 11 15 25 HEAT CONTENT 34 38 28 19 35 6 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -9. -16. -23. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 6. 3. 7. 17. 31. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -0. 2. 10. 17. 19. 17. 20. 29. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.8 69.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.31 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 94.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 11.9% 9.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.9% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 25 27 35 42 44 42 45 54 66 67 18HR AGO 25 24 23 25 27 35 42 44 42 45 54 66 67 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 40 42 40 43 52 64 65 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 32 34 32 35 44 56 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT