* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 32 36 47 47 46 49 58 58 62 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 32 36 47 47 46 49 58 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 26 29 30 30 32 38 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 33 28 19 13 18 25 26 26 30 48 54 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 0 4 0 5 7 8 14 10 8 0 SHEAR DIR 274 269 265 255 219 243 233 242 234 239 219 225 255 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.3 25.9 25.4 24.1 23.0 20.0 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 149 145 138 133 119 116 107 101 88 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 136 139 137 130 126 112 111 104 97 84 76 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -55.2 -55.4 -56.2 -56.1 -56.4 -56.1 -53.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.7 1.2 2.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 10 8 5 3 1 1 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 68 71 72 71 62 55 39 35 30 29 44 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 15 13 10 13 22 27 36 850 MB ENV VOR 5 1 -12 -27 -29 -19 38 -8 -44 -9 40 75 172 200 MB DIV 53 23 44 45 54 44 71 54 21 10 0 26 42 700-850 TADV -2 1 7 12 15 25 38 25 33 17 -63 -93 23 LAND (KM) 208 206 290 434 608 1013 1234 1143 1053 1305 1752 480 37 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.4 22.3 23.6 25.1 28.4 31.9 35.0 37.4 38.7 39.6 42.9 50.3 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 69.1 69.6 69.6 68.9 66.9 63.3 58.0 50.6 41.4 29.6 15.0 1.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 14 17 21 26 29 35 40 52 62 57 HEAT CONTENT 50 32 35 31 22 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -19. -28. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 5. 2. 4. 15. 21. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 17. 17. 16. 19. 28. 28. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.8 68.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.17 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.2% 10.8% 6.9% 5.5% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.8% 4.1% 2.4% 1.9% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 30 32 36 47 47 46 49 58 58 60 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 36 47 47 46 49 58 58 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 33 44 44 43 46 55 55 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 37 37 36 39 48 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT