* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 34 44 45 48 46 35 33 29 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 34 44 45 48 46 35 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 28 29 28 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 35 34 28 17 20 26 38 44 48 39 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 2 1 0 -5 0 7 9 14 5 8 SHEAR DIR 276 273 269 265 255 220 227 222 231 232 231 217 223 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.4 26.6 25.5 25.0 24.0 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 147 148 147 139 133 124 115 112 106 106 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 136 137 138 130 123 113 106 106 102 102 98 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.8 -55.8 -56.6 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 9 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 71 72 69 67 50 40 33 29 22 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 14 13 16 17 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 -5 -14 -27 -23 17 21 -6 -12 30 7 -85 200 MB DIV 37 48 29 49 54 53 59 90 74 27 -11 -32 -24 700-850 TADV -8 -2 1 6 11 10 12 -12 10 12 6 -63 -100 LAND (KM) 188 214 245 332 484 836 1032 1045 923 922 1302 1956 1226 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.6 24.0 27.0 30.8 34.2 37.2 38.6 38.8 38.2 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 67.9 68.7 69.1 69.1 67.9 66.3 63.2 58.2 50.6 41.3 31.7 23.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 12 15 18 21 22 28 34 38 37 32 HEAT CONTENT 61 53 37 36 28 31 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -14. -22. -29. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 6. 9. 10. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 14. 15. 18. 16. 5. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.2 66.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 113.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 11.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 29 29 30 34 44 45 48 46 35 33 29 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 34 44 45 48 46 35 33 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 31 41 42 45 43 32 30 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 35 36 39 37 26 24 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT