* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 32 38 46 42 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 32 38 46 42 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 23 24 27 26 22 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 35 33 33 26 12 28 43 57 70 82 100 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 1 3 0 -6 6 2 4 11 0 5 SHEAR DIR 275 277 272 267 273 225 224 208 222 224 244 245 230 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 27.9 27.1 26.6 25.7 21.0 19.5 15.9 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 149 148 138 130 125 117 91 86 77 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 139 139 130 121 115 108 87 82 73 64 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -55.5 -55.7 -56.7 -56.1 -55.1 -51.9 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 65 67 69 71 71 68 51 37 42 50 54 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 12 18 18 13 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -1 -11 -14 -25 -27 15 44 -4 20 15 36 93 200 MB DIV 23 40 54 36 47 49 57 95 67 48 24 10 19 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -2 -1 4 8 14 -10 -56 -72 30 50 -44 LAND (KM) 184 222 311 361 443 803 936 918 772 626 1124 1266 872 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.3 23.4 26.8 30.8 34.8 38.3 41.2 44.6 48.9 51.0 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 66.1 67.1 67.8 68.3 68.4 67.5 64.6 59.4 51.4 38.9 27.5 22.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 14 19 22 25 29 42 51 33 11 HEAT CONTENT 51 63 64 42 31 34 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -17. -29. -44. -62. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 11. 10. 3. -6. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. 2. 8. 16. 12. -3. -21. -38. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 64.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 32 38 46 42 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 32 38 46 42 27 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 30 36 44 40 25 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 25 31 39 35 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT