* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 27 31 38 34 25 18 18 19 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 27 31 38 34 25 18 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 22 21 22 22 21 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 36 36 33 31 21 22 34 51 56 55 42 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 4 3 1 -2 -5 5 2 3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 273 274 276 269 263 263 223 221 219 225 228 236 285 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 149 149 143 130 126 122 115 113 111 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 140 139 139 133 120 114 109 104 104 100 97 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -55.1 -56.2 -56.2 -57.0 -56.9 -57.4 -57.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 9 8 3 1 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 67 70 74 71 65 46 43 34 26 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 9 13 12 9 7 8 11 850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 -3 -17 -22 -36 -21 25 6 -3 -23 -41 -122 200 MB DIV 25 29 40 41 27 49 45 55 97 72 21 -31 -19 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -11 -3 1 5 8 1 -16 -38 -11 -16 -11 LAND (KM) 247 202 255 355 415 654 1027 903 915 875 1022 1205 1479 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.7 22.7 25.4 28.8 32.3 35.1 37.2 37.5 37.1 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.9 66.0 66.9 67.5 68.3 68.1 66.9 64.1 59.3 52.7 46.3 42.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 16 18 19 20 24 27 22 16 HEAT CONTENT 63 57 70 69 50 30 11 16 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -25. -35. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 4. 3. -2. -5. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 1. 8. 4. -5. -12. -12. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.3 63.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 61.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 28 27 27 31 38 34 25 18 18 19 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 27 31 38 34 25 18 18 19 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 25 29 36 32 23 16 16 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 23 30 26 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT