* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 29 29 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 29 29 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 19 19 19 18 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 29 35 37 35 29 16 29 39 60 70 68 78 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 6 6 3 3 2 -5 1 6 1 4 13 SHEAR DIR 292 273 273 277 273 263 243 239 222 235 236 250 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.2 27.4 26.8 25.6 24.0 23.1 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 146 148 150 142 133 127 115 105 101 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 138 138 139 140 133 123 117 106 98 96 82 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -55.4 -55.7 -56.7 -56.7 -56.3 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 65 67 71 72 70 61 42 41 43 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 9 0 -15 -32 -31 2 40 -15 -7 37 48 200 MB DIV 25 23 23 32 45 39 54 49 102 76 53 17 11 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -15 -13 -6 5 6 24 9 -13 4 -47 -120 LAND (KM) 358 251 175 171 266 441 750 1027 1014 831 755 952 1710 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.9 23.1 26.2 30.0 33.9 37.4 39.9 41.6 44.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.3 63.4 64.5 65.6 66.5 67.7 67.9 67.0 64.4 59.8 53.3 43.5 30.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 18 21 24 26 32 45 51 HEAT CONTENT 55 62 56 56 72 43 28 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -9. -14. -23. -35. -46. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -1. -1. -5. -11. -18. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 62.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 29 29 25 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 25 26 29 29 25 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 24 27 27 23 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 19 22 22 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT