* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 29 27 26 29 36 37 31 22 19 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 29 27 26 29 36 37 31 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 27 23 21 22 22 21 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 26 32 35 33 28 20 32 46 52 59 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 6 7 4 3 3 -8 3 3 4 9 SHEAR DIR 309 291 272 271 276 266 277 237 245 228 223 231 242 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 147 146 149 149 140 130 124 116 114 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 140 139 140 140 130 119 111 103 105 110 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.9 -56.2 -56.2 -57.4 -57.1 -57.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 4 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 63 64 70 72 71 70 52 46 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 8 12 14 12 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 1 9 13 7 -4 -10 -34 -9 22 7 -2 17 -4 200 MB DIV 9 21 14 19 28 27 62 48 53 75 78 32 -9 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -11 -16 -16 -2 1 7 18 0 -12 -34 -36 LAND (KM) 513 402 306 210 157 300 475 823 966 958 818 945 1139 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.5 21.2 23.6 26.9 30.7 34.2 36.8 37.8 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.9 61.9 62.8 63.8 64.9 66.7 68.0 68.0 67.2 65.0 61.5 55.6 47.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 12 15 18 20 19 21 29 37 HEAT CONTENT 54 52 59 62 52 73 36 33 2 9 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -19. -27. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 1. 3. -1. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -1. 6. 7. 1. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 60.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 12.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 29 27 26 29 36 37 31 22 19 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 27 25 24 27 34 35 29 20 17 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 24 22 21 24 31 32 26 17 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 18 16 15 18 25 26 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT