* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 27 25 24 26 29 30 31 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 27 25 24 26 29 30 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 30 28 24 22 20 20 21 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 19 23 30 32 33 19 24 24 33 39 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 4 0 -5 0 1 8 SHEAR DIR 308 306 292 276 274 275 275 277 260 237 238 221 236 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.9 27.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 148 148 147 147 149 144 138 131 120 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 138 138 140 140 138 139 133 125 118 108 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -55.0 -55.4 -56.2 -56.3 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 6 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 65 66 69 73 74 70 71 63 53 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 12 22 11 8 -18 -41 -20 28 23 15 0 200 MB DIV 5 0 7 16 29 45 35 77 47 45 65 111 35 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -11 -15 -8 1 9 8 11 13 13 25 LAND (KM) 633 535 443 363 269 100 255 494 781 1133 1186 1130 1287 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 19.0 20.8 23.2 25.9 29.0 31.8 34.1 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.9 61.7 62.4 63.2 65.1 66.5 66.9 66.3 65.3 63.9 60.5 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 10 11 11 13 15 16 17 20 26 HEAT CONTENT 59 54 52 54 59 49 73 52 26 14 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 17. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 60.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 18.6% 14.6% 9.6% 8.3% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 4.1% 2.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.5% 5.7% 3.4% 2.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/14/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 31 27 25 24 26 29 30 31 30 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 25 23 22 24 27 28 29 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 22 20 19 21 24 25 26 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT