* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 21 18 15 17 17 20 22 24 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 21 18 15 17 17 20 22 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 30 27 26 32 29 32 21 31 28 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 4 6 4 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 301 309 307 306 293 276 268 274 271 261 268 274 259 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 144 146 148 145 147 151 146 143 139 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 135 137 140 135 136 139 131 129 124 115 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -55.0 -55.6 -56.3 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 61 62 66 67 71 73 72 69 66 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 2 -3 0 -2 -3 -24 -46 -27 8 -9 -50 200 MB DIV 25 -11 -16 -2 -4 26 59 29 49 44 20 -9 40 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -3 -3 -4 -10 0 2 16 14 20 17 7 LAND (KM) 716 686 626 551 458 276 153 244 477 701 955 1224 1404 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.3 18.0 19.3 20.7 22.8 24.8 27.0 29.2 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 58.1 59.1 60.0 60.7 61.5 63.1 64.7 65.9 66.3 65.6 64.6 63.1 60.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 51 57 60 55 54 61 55 70 67 31 29 11 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -8. -8. -5. -3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 58.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.57 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 14.5% 11.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.6% 4.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 23 23 21 18 15 17 17 20 22 24 18HR AGO 25 24 24 23 23 21 18 15 17 17 20 22 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT