* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 10/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 25 23 22 20 17 18 22 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 25 23 22 20 17 18 22 30 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 24 24 28 26 31 33 37 19 21 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 0 0 -1 0 2 0 0 3 1 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 282 293 301 302 306 306 277 271 271 280 251 246 245 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 140 140 143 145 145 148 151 145 141 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 129 129 129 133 135 135 136 138 133 131 117 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -55.3 -55.8 -56.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 61 62 64 68 71 73 76 75 70 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 4 4 4 6 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -4 0 -3 -9 -9 -22 -34 -43 -23 12 18 200 MB DIV 20 29 22 0 -12 0 7 43 33 76 40 61 54 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -9 -10 -7 -10 -5 -3 6 10 8 -8 LAND (KM) 956 907 877 792 718 548 384 274 346 557 827 1188 1305 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.4 18.9 20.0 21.5 23.5 25.9 29.0 32.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.5 57.4 58.2 58.9 60.5 62.1 63.8 65.1 65.6 65.1 63.8 61.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 13 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 54 54 51 54 57 52 57 71 71 56 34 11 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 870 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 36.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -14. -18. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -3. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 55.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 10/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.78 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 36.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.5% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 3.6% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.7% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 10/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 10/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 25 25 23 22 20 17 18 22 30 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 23 22 20 17 18 22 30 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT