* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/27/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 29 35 32 35 34 32 25 29 17 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 31 36 33 36 35 33 26 30 18 V (KT) LGEM 20 22 24 26 26 25 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 38 36 33 33 32 24 40 47 63 62 58 47 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 4 1 8 -3 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 323 319 312 305 310 272 279 255 264 259 257 238 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 27.6 26.7 26.4 26.2 22.7 15.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 149 149 152 154 135 125 121 118 95 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 122 123 122 124 131 136 119 110 105 101 85 67 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.9 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 63 60 63 68 65 62 55 47 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 14 12 17 22 28 30 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -34 -1 -2 -16 9 -5 8 -7 19 44 65 62 200 MB DIV 13 17 24 28 -3 27 32 92 42 77 44 54 76 700-850 TADV 2 3 5 7 12 19 21 15 12 4 10 -7 -23 LAND (KM) -35 -23 0 28 53 143 85 207 462 474 499 522 216 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.3 31.5 33.5 35.7 37.5 39.3 40.6 42.1 45.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 81.4 81.2 81.0 80.8 79.5 77.3 73.6 69.1 64.5 60.5 55.2 51.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 5 11 17 19 21 19 17 23 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 28 13 27 27 25 59 4 22 16 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 2. -8. -20. -34. -48. -58. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 4. 1. 7. 13. 20. 22. 33. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 15. 12. 15. 14. 12. 5. 9. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.4 81.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/27/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/27/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/27/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 30 31 36 33 36 35 33 26 30 18 18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 28 33 30 33 32 30 23 27 15 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 21 26 23 26 25 23 16 20 DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT