* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 32 33 35 37 30 22 17 16 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 31 32 34 36 29 20 16 15 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 28 28 29 29 27 25 24 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 35 32 29 28 19 27 40 58 64 67 56 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -3 -2 1 4 5 2 -2 -7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 323 328 321 320 314 308 271 271 253 256 256 245 243 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 28.0 25.9 22.9 23.9 26.2 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 153 152 153 157 140 116 92 99 120 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 123 125 126 131 139 126 103 81 85 105 81 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -53.5 -54.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 6 4 5 2 2 1 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 65 63 62 67 67 62 59 52 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 10 11 13 13 13 15 22 23 25 29 34 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -29 -31 -7 1 -8 13 19 0 24 35 64 80 200 MB DIV 40 21 20 17 37 -2 26 83 65 80 14 51 40 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 6 6 13 15 27 14 7 4 -27 6 LAND (KM) -60 -60 -50 -31 -7 92 100 58 316 290 326 505 435 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 30.4 32.4 35.1 37.8 39.9 40.6 40.6 42.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.7 81.7 81.6 81.4 81.2 80.4 78.7 75.4 71.4 67.9 64.9 60.3 54.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 1 2 4 9 16 21 20 13 14 22 27 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 28 27 30 29 27 23 0 0 0 16 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. -5. -15. -28. -43. -55. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 10. 12. 13. 17. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 17. 10. 2. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.2 81.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 17.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 999.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/27/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 25 26 31 32 34 36 29 20 16 15 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 27 28 30 32 25 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 23 24 26 28 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT