* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 30 33 35 40 38 33 35 31 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 30 33 34 39 37 33 35 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 29 29 30 31 31 29 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 33 32 33 28 27 17 33 46 65 64 54 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -3 -5 -2 6 4 6 -9 -4 6 0 SHEAR DIR 319 320 327 324 323 320 285 276 263 262 252 239 235 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 27.2 24.2 21.5 25.8 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 159 156 153 152 155 153 130 101 85 117 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 128 127 126 130 136 137 114 88 75 106 78 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 5 6 4 3 1 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 65 66 60 61 66 63 60 58 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 9 10 11 12 14 15 22 26 30 38 40 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -19 -35 -36 -7 -5 17 4 18 4 40 72 53 200 MB DIV 35 51 24 15 7 -5 37 33 93 61 82 107 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 4 9 15 19 21 20 17 -24 0 LAND (KM) -72 -72 -80 -65 -44 41 177 145 254 283 227 395 272 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.8 31.4 33.5 36.1 38.9 40.5 40.3 44.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.8 81.8 81.9 81.7 81.5 80.8 79.0 76.3 73.0 70.1 68.2 63.4 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 3 8 13 18 19 15 10 27 30 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 43 30 27 27 36 45 56 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -4. -12. -24. -38. -49. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 13. 18. 22. 32. 33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 20. 18. 13. 15. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.1 81.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 55.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/26/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 25 26 30 33 34 39 37 33 35 30 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 26 29 30 35 33 29 31 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 25 26 31 29 25 27 22 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT