* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 25 31 31 32 31 27 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 26 30 31 30 26 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 25 26 26 29 28 28 27 25 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 32 36 35 30 24 23 36 52 65 67 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -4 -8 -6 -5 -1 6 4 7 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 321 309 308 324 323 324 327 279 267 267 262 251 248 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.3 28.3 26.6 24.4 25.0 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 154 156 157 154 154 159 144 123 103 106 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 122 125 127 127 127 133 141 129 109 91 89 88 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 5 7 4 6 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 64 63 60 54 59 65 66 64 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 13 13 13 13 15 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -26 -16 -26 -31 5 -4 24 14 -14 14 16 50 200 MB DIV 12 37 50 33 2 27 10 35 54 57 72 46 33 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 2 3 6 13 14 8 20 9 -4 -7 LAND (KM) -73 -67 -79 -84 -80 -50 89 143 92 355 378 348 415 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 30.2 32.2 34.7 37.2 39.4 40.7 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.9 81.9 82.0 82.0 82.0 81.6 80.4 78.3 75.3 71.3 67.1 63.6 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 2 1 1 3 11 16 20 20 18 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 25 27 42 27 29 37 44 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -4. -11. -21. -34. -47. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. 10. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 4. 5. 11. 11. 12. 11. 7. 4. -5. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.4 81.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 72.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 25 26 26 30 31 30 26 22 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 22 26 27 26 22 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 18 22 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT