* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 33 35 38 39 42 41 46 47 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 31 31 35 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 30 30 32 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 27 29 30 32 33 30 19 17 13 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 1 -3 -4 -6 -3 2 2 6 5 4 SHEAR DIR 340 336 339 336 334 338 350 353 353 339 325 330 355 SST (C) 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.5 28.6 28.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 166 167 167 168 168 165 159 162 149 142 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 141 138 137 139 142 142 140 139 146 136 132 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 64 64 65 66 65 60 55 55 56 58 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 8 8 9 9 11 13 15 15 18 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -41 -65 -71 -44 -37 -18 -8 21 26 15 13 35 200 MB DIV 17 26 3 -3 18 14 3 0 -20 -20 22 15 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 7 21 26 34 19 24 LAND (KM) -2 -34 -34 -38 -36 -44 -97 -51 107 374 437 755 1228 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.6 28.6 30.1 31.7 32.4 32.4 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 82.3 82.3 82.2 82.1 82.0 81.5 80.9 79.5 77.2 73.6 68.6 62.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 0 1 2 2 3 5 10 15 20 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 55 53 53 52 52 57 49 52 51 66 33 28 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 17. 17. 21. 22. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.9 82.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.09 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 53.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 78.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 11.3% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.7% 3.3% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 31 31 35 36 38 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 29 29 33 34 36 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 22 26 26 30 31 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 16 20 20 24 25 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT