* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 31 33 37 37 41 41 44 53 V (KT) LAND 20 19 21 25 26 31 33 37 37 35 30 33 43 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 20 22 24 24 24 24 23 21 25 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 24 29 28 29 32 28 28 22 11 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -5 -2 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 4 5 1 SHEAR DIR 344 344 343 352 355 355 5 17 22 57 79 155 197 SST (C) 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.1 29.2 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 167 168 168 166 168 170 171 156 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 147 150 150 155 155 151 155 158 151 137 140 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 9 10 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 64 64 65 61 60 58 59 59 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 12 11 15 13 12 17 850 MB ENV VOR -75 -47 -47 -74 -75 -38 -29 -3 -20 -10 -43 -37 -51 200 MB DIV 4 17 32 15 -5 14 -16 -2 -46 -5 -5 -6 -20 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 1 -1 -1 0 3 0 14 11 -4 LAND (KM) 16 -7 -4 0 10 27 22 53 34 -4 -78 113 306 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.6 26.4 27.9 29.7 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 82.5 82.5 82.5 82.4 82.2 81.9 81.8 81.8 81.9 81.6 80.0 77.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 0 3 6 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 68 16 22 23 55 51 49 59 54 62 36 38 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 1. -5. -11. -16. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 7. 5. 2. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 13. 17. 17. 21. 21. 24. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 27.1 82.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/25/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 21 25 26 31 33 37 37 35 30 33 43 18HR AGO 20 19 21 25 26 31 33 37 37 35 30 33 43 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 21 26 28 32 32 30 25 28 38 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT