* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 25 28 32 35 36 39 41 46 52 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 25 28 32 35 36 39 41 46 52 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 29 23 24 27 29 30 33 28 30 20 19 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 -6 -3 -5 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 326 340 347 347 356 5 14 24 40 49 54 34 322 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.6 30.1 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 168 168 168 169 169 169 163 160 171 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 149 150 153 155 155 155 155 150 143 141 155 165 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 700-500 MB RH 67 67 69 70 66 64 62 60 60 58 59 59 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 15 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -68 -43 -41 -74 -51 -29 -11 -25 -40 -13 49 24 200 MB DIV 12 4 24 44 17 24 13 -15 -13 -4 9 40 25 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 4 0 17 LAND (KM) 120 147 159 174 194 246 248 165 135 166 185 280 323 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.7 24.8 23.9 23.2 22.8 23.2 24.1 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.0 84.1 84.2 84.3 84.5 84.6 84.8 85.3 86.2 87.2 88.4 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 4 5 5 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 55 48 46 44 41 45 51 51 68 63 56 43 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -6. -12. -18. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 16. 19. 21. 26. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.8 83.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.93 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/25/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 24 25 28 32 35 36 39 41 46 52 18HR AGO 20 19 20 23 24 27 31 34 35 38 40 45 51 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 20 23 27 30 31 34 36 41 47 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT