* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 30 32 34 34 34 38 41 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 21 23 25 29 30 30 31 34 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 21 24 27 27 26 25 25 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 29 31 23 29 27 32 30 31 29 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 324 323 331 346 352 356 356 2 17 24 44 44 51 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 167 167 169 169 169 168 169 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 148 148 147 147 150 157 158 155 153 155 156 155 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 69 68 64 64 66 62 61 60 57 56 54 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 7 7 8 9 10 10 13 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -54 -76 -78 -62 -75 -58 -44 -31 -26 -31 -42 -55 200 MB DIV 32 32 5 1 13 0 -5 5 -34 -35 -29 -12 20 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 4 3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 21 19 10 -4 -16 -9 4 70 119 85 73 132 236 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.5 23.7 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.3 82.4 82.4 82.3 82.1 81.9 81.8 81.9 82.0 82.6 83.4 84.5 85.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 17 55 54 56 61 25 56 54 62 60 58 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -5. -11. -17. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 18. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.6 82.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 62.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 999.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/24/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 21 23 25 29 30 30 31 34 37 41 18HR AGO 20 19 20 19 21 23 27 28 28 29 32 35 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 19 23 24 24 25 28 31 35 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT