* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 31 34 36 37 37 40 46 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 25 30 32 32 33 35 41 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 26 25 25 24 24 24 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 21 20 26 32 25 28 31 32 30 35 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -6 -3 -5 -5 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 329 327 319 329 341 346 354 359 4 16 26 43 32 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 165 166 167 168 169 169 169 168 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 148 145 148 149 154 158 156 154 152 153 153 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 68 70 68 65 66 69 63 63 60 58 56 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 4 5 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 12 14 22 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -41 -46 -72 -76 -61 -90 -47 -45 -21 -32 -25 -36 200 MB DIV 20 38 34 -3 -1 23 -26 -1 -32 -35 -57 -35 -27 700-850 TADV -1 1 1 1 4 1 1 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 18 19 2 2 2 -9 13 59 112 67 32 32 90 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.5 23.7 23.2 23.0 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.4 82.4 82.4 82.4 82.0 82.0 81.9 82.0 82.4 83.0 83.8 84.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 1 2 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 17 55 55 55 60 25 53 53 67 67 51 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -4. -10. -17. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 20. 26. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.5 82.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.8% 3.2% 1.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 999.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/24/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 24 26 25 30 32 32 33 35 41 55 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 24 23 28 30 30 31 33 39 53 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 18 23 25 25 26 28 34 48 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT