* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 29 34 37 40 39 40 42 49 55 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 29 34 37 40 39 40 42 49 55 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 22 22 22 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 27 21 20 26 22 30 29 30 33 32 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -4 -7 -5 -3 -5 -2 -2 -5 -6 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 318 322 318 318 330 350 351 359 357 13 22 35 23 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.1 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 167 166 166 167 168 169 169 169 169 168 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 153 147 145 148 149 154 158 159 155 154 148 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 69 67 69 64 65 63 61 58 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 6 5 6 6 8 9 11 12 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -46 -24 -38 -67 -59 -94 -67 -46 -19 -20 -23 -32 200 MB DIV 35 21 26 34 8 5 17 13 -1 -13 -23 -33 -30 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 1 1 3 0 0 -2 0 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 25 41 67 67 69 68 104 159 206 101 39 50 84 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.7 23.7 22.9 22.3 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 82.9 83.2 83.2 83.2 83.1 83.2 83.3 83.5 83.7 84.2 84.8 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 74 70 70 69 70 62 48 44 56 71 59 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 2. -4. -10. -16. -23. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 20. 19. 21. 22. 29. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.7 82.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 63.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 10.8% 6.6% 2.7% 1.7% 4.8% 3.8% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 24 27 29 34 37 40 39 40 42 49 55 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 27 32 35 38 37 38 40 47 53 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 21 26 29 32 31 32 34 41 47 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT