* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 30 37 40 41 42 44 48 53 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 30 37 40 41 42 39 46 51 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 20 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 25 22 21 28 21 29 31 35 34 31 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 -5 -5 -4 -5 -2 -5 -5 -6 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 305 310 310 316 311 339 344 3 360 5 14 24 27 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 168 167 167 166 168 168 169 170 170 167 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 156 153 150 148 147 156 157 157 158 156 148 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 9 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 65 64 68 70 69 67 68 62 63 61 58 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -63 -50 -24 -36 -72 -55 -82 -33 -30 -9 -31 -34 200 MB DIV 43 32 15 21 16 1 25 -7 35 -8 -16 -48 -18 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 2 1 4 0 0 -4 -3 -6 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 18 53 86 111 120 127 140 209 206 99 0 55 117 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.2 25.5 24.6 23.5 22.3 21.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.8 83.3 83.6 83.7 83.7 83.6 83.8 84.0 84.2 84.3 84.8 85.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 2 1 1 4 4 5 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 77 64 53 52 52 52 47 45 60 138 91 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -8. -15. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 20. 21. 22. 24. 28. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.5 82.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 14.1% 8.6% 2.8% 1.8% 5.3% 5.0% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.7% 2.9% 0.9% 0.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 27 30 37 40 41 42 39 46 51 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 28 35 38 39 40 37 44 49 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 24 31 34 35 36 33 40 45 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT