* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 28 36 41 50 53 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 20 24 24 26 29 32 40 45 53 57 59 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 34 37 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 21 19 19 24 24 30 22 28 22 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -3 -5 -3 -5 -1 -3 -4 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 290 304 310 311 311 323 342 358 356 4 353 340 328 SST (C) 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 169 169 168 167 168 169 169 168 165 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 161 159 159 154 150 151 151 148 146 140 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 13 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 68 68 71 69 63 62 60 64 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 2 3 4 3 5 5 7 7 9 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -81 -60 -27 -19 -9 -2 -44 -57 -75 -32 -32 -1 200 MB DIV 51 32 33 45 42 22 19 12 21 48 40 40 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 0 2 2 1 0 1 0 6 0 LAND (KM) -45 18 90 154 200 275 304 346 401 387 312 294 305 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.9 82.6 83.2 83.6 84.5 84.9 85.5 86.3 87.3 88.1 88.3 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 3 2 3 5 4 3 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 80 41 61 48 44 60 94 157 176 110 55 50 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. 1. -0. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 7. 9. 8. 6. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 16. 22. 30. 33. 35. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.0 81.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 15.4% 8.2% 2.4% 1.7% 2.7% 3.5% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/23/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 24 24 26 29 32 40 45 53 57 59 59 60 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 24 27 35 40 48 52 54 54 55 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 24 32 37 45 49 51 51 52 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT