* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 23 27 32 35 38 40 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 19 22 25 29 32 35 37 41 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 20 24 28 29 30 30 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 18 23 21 26 25 27 24 30 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -9 -8 -7 -5 -6 -4 -7 -3 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 293 307 305 297 308 321 315 331 341 14 8 15 19 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 172 169 169 170 169 168 168 167 167 167 168 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 150 147 146 149 147 151 148 150 153 155 155 157 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 62 62 63 65 67 65 66 62 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 6 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -82 -79 -85 -93 -63 -72 -52 -77 -67 -94 -78 -68 200 MB DIV 7 5 17 34 11 22 24 20 12 15 32 23 -2 700-850 TADV 2 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 257 154 62 -7 -67 -37 10 31 51 91 140 168 193 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.4 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.6 78.6 79.5 80.2 80.8 81.8 82.4 82.8 82.9 83.0 83.2 83.3 83.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 3 3 1 2 2 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 72 72 64 25 70 57 55 76 75 68 52 46 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 24. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.0 77.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 8.0% 4.6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/22/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 20 19 22 25 29 32 35 37 41 44 46 18HR AGO 20 19 20 19 22 25 29 32 35 37 41 44 46 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 18 21 25 28 31 33 37 40 42 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT