* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 39 41 44 42 48 50 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 26 27 30 32 35 34 39 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 26 26 31 32 33 35 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 13 16 21 18 25 22 27 19 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -7 -9 -8 -4 -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 263 292 315 318 307 312 296 313 319 357 13 17 23 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.8 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 169 172 171 170 170 169 168 168 167 167 168 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 151 148 148 153 151 153 146 146 151 156 158 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 12 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 58 61 61 63 64 67 67 68 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 1 3 2 4 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -72 -78 -74 -82 -89 -62 -68 -59 -88 -70 -96 -63 200 MB DIV 21 24 6 6 33 -1 22 12 29 8 16 0 6 700-850 TADV 1 2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 372 247 146 64 -5 -54 0 37 53 84 101 140 177 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.7 78.7 79.5 80.2 81.4 82.1 82.8 83.1 83.4 83.5 83.6 83.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 6 4 3 4 1 1 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 73 72 74 65 27 64 4 77 71 63 57 52 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -5. -7. -5. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 16. 19. 17. 23. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.5 76.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.51 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.88 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 42.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 19.1% 14.3% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 19.9% 13.3% 6.8% 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 13.0% 9.2% 5.1% 1.4% 1.2% 6.0% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/22/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 26 27 30 32 35 34 39 42 45 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 25 26 29 31 34 33 38 41 44 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 21 22 25 27 30 29 34 37 40 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT