* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 38 44 52 57 64 66 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 28 32 39 46 51 58 60 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 41 45 50 55 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 10 13 12 7 15 12 17 20 20 19 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -4 -6 -7 -4 -9 -4 -6 -2 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 288 276 295 321 312 307 318 304 329 329 359 353 12 SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 166 172 171 170 170 170 169 170 170 170 169 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 158 155 155 161 160 160 159 152 148 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 47 51 53 53 55 58 58 62 64 65 66 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -58 -64 -74 -72 -84 -65 -70 -43 -63 -55 -92 -78 200 MB DIV 18 35 12 10 7 10 9 15 20 1 8 0 2 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -1 3 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 379 276 153 64 -5 30 123 245 336 398 266 188 160 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.6 26.3 27.1 27.6 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 77.5 78.7 79.6 80.3 81.6 82.8 84.1 85.5 86.7 87.8 88.4 88.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 10 7 6 6 5 6 7 6 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 71 90 88 73 16 48 52 50 164 142 61 63 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 13. 19. 27. 32. 39. 41. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.9 76.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.93 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 190.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 64.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.9% 13.7% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 19.7% 12.0% 5.4% 2.5% 9.5% 10.5% 19.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 12.9% 8.6% 4.3% 0.8% 3.2% 9.3% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/21/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 29 28 32 39 46 51 58 60 62 63 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 27 31 38 45 50 57 59 61 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 22 26 33 40 45 52 54 56 57 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT