* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922017 08/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 47 55 60 63 67 69 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 39 43 48 51 54 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 32 31 35 40 45 50 54 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 8 11 12 6 12 8 13 12 17 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -6 -5 -7 -3 -4 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 321 336 271 301 337 321 324 318 329 342 360 37 37 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 167 171 170 169 169 169 169 168 167 166 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 150 152 152 150 159 160 160 153 149 148 152 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 11 13 11 700-500 MB RH 49 49 52 54 53 57 58 60 62 63 62 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -78 -72 -75 -84 -86 -86 -72 -69 -53 -74 -67 -92 200 MB DIV 1 6 15 12 -2 -2 -11 15 -1 1 0 15 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 377 376 342 298 205 94 -16 24 113 136 178 176 183 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.7 26.0 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.1 75.5 76.5 77.4 78.3 79.4 80.6 81.8 83.0 83.8 84.3 84.3 84.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 11 9 8 7 5 6 5 6 3 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 86 97 72 79 86 43 61 51 45 44 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 14. 22. 30. 35. 38. 42. 44. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.1 74.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.87 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 199.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 68.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 23.0% 14.9% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 9.1% 5.0% 1.4% 0.5% 7.4% 8.6% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 10.7% 6.6% 3.3% 0.2% 2.5% 2.9% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922017 INVEST 08/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922017 INVEST 08/21/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 32 39 39 43 48 51 54 57 59 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 30 37 37 41 46 49 52 55 57 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 33 37 42 45 48 51 53 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 25 29 34 37 40 43 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT